Editor's Choice Letter sent to Clarion-Ledger (Jackson) - What the Debt Ceiling Debate is Really All About by John Richard May, Jr.

Dear Editor:

The debt ceiling debate is not about spending cuts or tax increases or even the debt ceiling itself.  What it is about is the White House, the Office of the Presidency.  The fight over the White House will be won right here, right now under the guise of a debt ceiling debate.
  If the Republicans agree to tax increases no matter how they are termed (for example, closing tax loopholes), President Obama will be reelected for a second term.  On the other hand, if President Obama agrees to spending cuts without such tax increases (the so-called balanced approach), his Presidency is over, and he might as well hand the keys to the janitor the same night that he signs such a deal.  

If the Republicans really cared that much about the country's mounting debt (which they were all too happy to contribute to under Bush II), they could tell their constituents that they will take one last vote to raise the debt ceiling for the good of the country, but once they win the White House in 2012, they will make all the necessary cuts to eliminate the budget deficit and begin to pay down the national debt.  But that is the rub.  One, they do not feel they can win the White House outright with the slate of candidates they have fielded.  Two, even if they win the White House, they do not want their guy to take all the political hits he or she would have to take to cut or eliminate some very popular programs.  They would rather hang these cuts around Mr. Obama's neck and let their guy have a fresh start.  Heck, the new Republican President might even trim the cuts a bit or add back a program or two that Mr. Obama took away and become a hero of some Democrats.

For his part, President Obama knows that the outcome of this vote will determine whether his Presidency continues or not.  He has put his chips on the table (Social Security, Medicare, etc.) without concurrently getting the Republicans to place their  chips on the table (sensible tax increases).  Hence, if he signs such a deal, he will lose significant support from his base and pick up virtually no support from Republicans.  Mathematically, that means he will lose the Presidential election of 2012.  If he does not sign a deal without tax increases included, he will squeak out a second term.  If he convinces Republicans to accept some tax increases as part of the deal to cut spending, all in support of eliminating the deficit (and ultimately reducing the national debt), he will easily win a second term.  

In this game of chicken, the nation's credibility hangs in the balance.  Unfortunately, the political party that is most willing to wreak havoc on the country's credit rating and general reputation for its own political gain is likely to be the victor (at least in the short run).

Clearly, the Republicans lit this fuse.  However, President Obama encouraged this embolden action by the right wing of the Republican Party by consistently stepping away from so-called stands on principle.
Editors' Choice Letter sent to Clarion-Ledger (Jackson) - What the Debt Ceiling Debate is Really All About by John Richard May, Jr.
